Brazil’s Failed Coup and the Fate of Democracy

By Markus Richard

When Lula’s convictions were annulled in 2021 on a jurisdictional issue, it set up a battle between Bolsonaro and Lula, the scions of the right and left of the political spectrum in Brazil.[1] In an increasingly polarized nation, the stakes of the election were seen as existential for both sides.[2] Adding to the pressure was Bolsonaro’s refusal to commit to accepting the results of the election, win or lose, saying that “only God” could remove him from power.[3]

The result ended up being close, at 50.9 percent for Lula and 49.1 percent for Bolsonaro, but a win for Lula nonetheless.[4] Bolsonaro never called to concede, only saying that “as president and as a citizen I will continue to follow all the commandments of our constitution.”[5] That purposeful ambiguity and his insistence that he could only lose from fraud led many Bolsonaro supporters to engage in civil disobedience and call on the military to seize power to keep Bolsonaro in office.

Those protests persisted even after Lula’s inauguration, culminating in an assault on government buildings that host Brazil’s executive, legislative, and judicial branches of government.[6] The protestors heeded calls across pro-Bolsonaro social media channels to head to the capital and “surround Brasilia,” presumably in an attempt to overwhelm the government and overthrow it.[7] Lula and other government officials were luckily not there when the rioters attacked, but the rioters caused extensive damage to the buildings and they faced little resistance from the capital’s district police.[8]

At least 1,500 rioters have been detained by the authorities and will be held at least until the investigation has concluded. Courtesy Reuters.

In response, the government took action to prosecute the protestors and officials who let the riot happen. A Supreme Court justice suspended the governor of the capital district for ninety days, saying the attack “could only have happened with the acquiescence, or even direct involvement, of public security and intelligence authorities.”[9] Several hundred rioters have already been arrested, and the impact on Brazil’s politics will reverberate for years.[10]

The attack shook Brazilian democracy, its gravest threat since the return of democracy in 1985. Bolsonaro’s refusal to formally concede, and his silence in the face of extended protests and encampments after the election, amounted to a tacit endorsement of the protestors’ actions.[11] His refusal to openly acknowledge his loss encouraged the protestors by giving them hope that some event would happen to prevent Lula from taking office.[12]

These protestors were convinced that the 2022 election was stolen from Bolsonaro — despite no evidence finding any malfeasance.[13] Conspiracy theories about the election were abound on right-wing internet channels, especially on social apps like WhatsApp and Telegram.[14] Echoing the riot at the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, rioters who stormed the government buildings in Brasilia were convinced that the real people who caused the damage were “radical leftists” in disguise hoping to defame Bolsonaro’s supporters.[15] Some Bolsonaro supporters made an explicit connection between the two countries, and were convinced that leftists in both countries were trying to frame the right.[16]

Although the riot is over and Lula’s government is prosecuting rioters and other parties responsible, the movement is likely to persist. The rioters were not successful in overthrowing Lula or reinstalling Bolsonaro, but their aims are reverberating.[17] Many of the protestors believe in conspiracies such as leftist elites installed Lula to turn Brazil into Venezuela, a quasi-failed communist dictatorship.[18]

Lula now faces the task of governing an increasingly divided country, investigating the riot, and prosecuting those responsible.[19] At least 1,500 rioters have been detained by the authorities and will be held at least until the investigation has concluded.[20] Lula vowed to prosecute every rioter while protecting Brazilian democracy.[21]

Just days before the riot, many of Brazil’s top government officials walked the same plaza in a show of unity.[22] Hopefully Brazil’s democracy proves resilient to forces that seek to tear it down.

[1] Lula: Brazil Ex-President’s Corruption Convictions Annulled, BBC News, (Mar. 9, 2021), https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-56326389.

[2] Brazil’s Polarizing Presidential Contest Goes to Voters, Politico, (Oct. 30, 2022), https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/30/brazil-runoff-bolsonaro-lula-00064127.

[3] Brazil’s Bolsonaro: Only God Will Remove me from Power, BBC News, (Sept. 8, 2021), https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-58479028.

[4] Carrie Kahn, Brazil’s Bolsonaro Avoids Conceding Defeat, but Begins Transition to Winner Lula, NPR, (Nov. 1, 2022), https://www.npr.org/2022/11/01/1133125539/brazil-bolsonaro-concede-presidential-election-lula.

[5] Id.

[6] Jack Nicas & Simon Romero, ‘We Will Die for Brazil’: How a Far-Right Mob Tried to Oust Lula, N.Y. Times, (Jan. 13, 2023), https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/13/world/americas/brazil-protests-mob.html.

[7] Id.

[8] Tom Phillips & Andrew Downie, Brazil Protests: Lula Vows to Punish ‘Neo-Fascists’ After Bolsonaro Supporters Storm Congress, The Guardian, (Jan. 8, 2023), https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/08/jair-bolsonaro-supporters-storm-brazils-presidential-palace-and-supreme-court.

[9] Id.

[10] Id.

[11] Angelica Mari, In the Aftermath of Riots, Brazil Faces the Challenge of Countering Online Radicalization, Forbes, (Jan. 13, 2023), https://www.forbes.com/sites/angelicamarideoliveira/2023/01/13/in-the-aftermath-of-riots-brazil-faces-the-challenge-of-countering-online-radicalization/?sh=6a8853e433d7

[12] Id.

[13] Jack Nicas, What Drove a Mass Attack on Brazil’s Capital? Mass Delusion, N.Y. Times, (Jan. 9, 2023), https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/09/world/americas/brazil-riots-bolsonaro-conspiracy-theories.html.

[14] Id.

[15] Id.

[16] Id.

[17] Id.

[18] Id.

[19] Id.

[20] Id.

[21] Id.

[22] Id.